Guns v/s Butter Syndrome
Forecasting the future - India, Pakistan and the Inter-Services
Intelligence agency : Part II

By Lieutenant Colonel Thakur Kuldip S Ludra (Retd.), April 2000

With the ideas clear as to what are Pakistan's constraints and inclination, we can now analyse as to what could be the sequence of actions that India is likely to face.

Firstly, increase at efforts at spreading terror. This was driven home, from 3 to 5 November 1999, when Pakistan's Markaz-al-Irshad played host to over 2,00,000 Muslims, from all over the world, at Muridke. An effort which had an obvious support from the Government of Pakistan. What came out was the fact that Lashkar-e-Toiba, the militant wing of the Markaz-al-Irshad, and its protector; or its terrorist squad, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen aka. Harkat-ul-Ansar, will be the organisation of choice, for their operations in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

It also came out that India was to be one of its principal target countries. The first thing that India can, therefore, expect is an increase in acts of just plain terrorism in the form of bomb blasts, kidnapping for a ransom, as well as for demanding certain countervailing actions from the Government of India; hijacking with the same aim in view, rape, murder and assassination. The massacre in Chatisinghpora, on 20 March 2000, is just one case in point. In fact, the only limit to this activity is the limits of human ingenuity. We have already seen that in the form of the hijacking of the Indian Airlines Flight 814.

There will be increasing effort to Islamise the Indian society. There would be a literal demographic invasion of the country by the Muslim hordes coming in from Pakistan and even more dangerous, from Bangladesh, into Rajasthan in the West and the Seven Sisters in the East. Even as these immigrants trek into India, a place will be created for them by moving out by Muslims from these very states to states further inland, till there is a veritable corridor for the incoming migrants to spread right through India. With the present trends we can expect the percentage of all India Muslim population, to go up from 12% in 1991 to at least 17% of the total population by the census of 2001. If the present trend continues, by 2021, the Muslim population will be 50% of the total Indian population.

There will be an increasing number of madrassas coming up all over India with the concomitance of setting up of mosques, ever close to vulnerable but strategic targets, like ammunition depots, and airfields. A number of airforce airfields have become flying death traps because of Muslim butchers setting up butcheries or meat selling shops on the periphery of the airfields. One such airfield badly affected is at Halwara. Hindon also has become non-effective, because of the location of the abattoir near it. In fact, Hindon has been literally evacuated by the Indian Air Force, thereby robbing the national capital of any air defence cover! It has been alleged that all this happened because of an erstwhile Central Government Minister, whose base was and still is in Uttar Pardesh, and who wants to grab the Air Force land for exploitation by the land sharks operating in Ghaziabad.

Pakistan is, today, in very bad economic shape. However, this has not worried the political establishment as she has an access to at least $20 Billion annually, from narcotics from Afghanistan alone. She has already entered into the Golden Triangle, to gain access to heroin produced in that region also. With so much undeclared income coming in from this clandestine activity, she is not bothered about her economic situation, nor is she worried about sanctions being imposed by the rest of the world. However, to achieve a certain degree of legitimacy, she has to involve India in this traffic. We can, therefore, expect a greater smuggling in of drugs, into India from where drugs will transit to other parts of the world, particularly the West.

As a part of the Pakistani programme to balkanise India, we can expect a greater degree of communal trouble and riots, even as the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate continues to move in her terrorist squads to target India's 'so called' leadership and vulnerable points and areas. We saw it in North Bengal during the Kargil conflict, when the troop trains were targeted.

We can expect greater trade union militant activity where Inter Intelligence cadres would have infiltrated into the Indian trade unions. Alternatively, the Inter Services Intelligence will finance any such activity. It must be realised that the port labour of most of the major ports has invariably been dominated by the Muslim mafia gangsters, from Haji Mastan onwards.

We can expect greater efforts to target Indian economy. Dumping in of counterfeit currency is already on in a very big way. While there have been large amount of confiscations, but the fact remains that these are not even a small percentage of the total amount being brought in. Soon the very economy will be under siege.

We can expect a greater involvement of the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate in places further afield, where the Muslims are clashing with other communities. We can, therefore, expect them to be supporting Chechen rebels as well as the Islamic fundamentalist attack into Dagestan. We can expect increasing support to HUK rebels in Philippines.

What is more dangerous for India, we can expect the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate, entering into Indonesia, to counter American efforts to break up that country. With Andaman and Nicobar Islands next door, and the importance of these islands to the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate operations, both in Indonesia as well as in drug running, we can expect the setting up of bases in that very region by Pakistan. Let there be no mistake. Pakistan is serious in her approach towards balkanisation of India. That there is an obvious requirement to counter this move on the part of Pakistan, should be apparent to any one with a modicum of intelligence. (I mean human and not military). Just to keep on wailing that Pakistan is trying to destabilise India, while wringing our hands is not only not enough, it will start becoming counter-productive as the man in the street will start asking what has been done about it. Nor is it likely that the Americans will come to the help of India. They will, as they have always done, work to protect their interests. Looking towards United States of America always will only confirm the global image that India has acquired. That of an effete government run by wimps. So far the Indian has not yet taken that attitude. When he does that, it will be the end of the country, as we know it.

The obvious next question is, where do we go from here. The following action is suggested:

A complete shake up of the national security apparatus in the entire national security should be the responsibility of one authority and that should be the Chief of Defence Staff, with the para military forces under one Director General, functioning under the Chief of Defence Staff. The Chief of Defence Staff to be the advisor to the National Security Council on security matters. A proper census to be carried out and all the migrant's identified and disenfranchised. Ration cards should also be withdrawn from them and proper identity cards given to them classifying their migrant status. In other words make the task of living as difficult as possible for the illegal migrants. Strengthen the Intelligence network and place them under one coordinating agency. They should not report to any one else but this agency. This present tendency of different agencies reporting to different ministries is turning out to be counter-productive. It must be realised that Pakistan has launched her Operation Sierra Tango. The aim is to destroy India's social as well as economic cohesiveness. It is vital for her to do so before she can hope to achieve her policy imperatives.

In fact it is vital, that the Government of India understands that the principal task of any government is National Security. All things including welfare comes after wards. Thereafter it must work to ensure this. 

(1) See author Defence of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
(2) See author Pakistan: India's Bete Noire.